Where the market is wrong on Kenya v Eritrea
Kenya meet Eritrea in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification group stage - 1 at Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi.
Kenya rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1563 to 1400. Recent form leans Kenya, 59% against 31%. Attacking output favors Kenya on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.6 per match.
Kenya arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Eritrea, W 4-0 v Lesotho, D 1-1 @ Lesotho, W 3-0 @ Grenada.
Eritrea are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Kenya, W 2-1 @ Eswatini, W 2-0 v Eswatini, L 0-1 v Niger.
Eritrea hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Kenya 1-1 Eritrea.
The market prices KEN at 69% implied. Our number sits apart on Eritrea: a 12.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
