Bogota FC v Deportivo Pasto

Bogota FC meet Deportivo Pasto in the Copa Colombia play-offs at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, undefined. The model makes Bogota FC the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% BOG, 33% draw, 32% DEP.

The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Bogota FC, 55% against 45%. Attacking output favors Deportivo Pasto on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans Bogota FC at 53%; double chance reads Bogota FC or draw 68%, Deportivo Pasto or draw 64%.

Bogota FC arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Union Magdalena, W 1-0 @ Deportivo Pasto, D 0-0 @ Union Magdalena, L 1-2 v Real Cartagena.

Deportivo Pasto are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Independiente Medellin, L 0-1 v Bogota FC, L 0-2 v Deportes Tolima, L 0-1 @ Deportes Tolima.

The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Bogota FC.

The market prices BOG at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Bogota FC: a 6.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 68 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.