Lagun Onak v Derio: the model read
Lagun Onak meet Derio in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 semi-finals. The model makes Lagun Onak the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% LAG, 31% draw, 33% DER.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 60%. Attacking output favors Lagun Onak on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 41%. Draw no bet leans Lagun Onak at 51%; double chance reads Lagun Onak or draw 67%, Derio or draw 65%.
Lagun Onak arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Derio, W 2-0 v Derio, W 3-2 @ Leioa, D 1-1 v Eibar III.
Derio are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 2 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Athletic Club, L 0-1 @ Leioa, L 0-1 v Leioa, W 2-0 v Lagun Onak.
Lagun Onak hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Derio 2-0 Lagun Onak.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
