Torres took a 2-1 victory over Bra in the Serie C relegation play-out at Vanni Sanna, a result that the Lemeister model had shaded in the hosts' favour with a 41 per cent win probability. The scoreline was ultimately settled by a two-goal burst in the second half, but the underlying numbers suggest a contest that was tighter than the final margin implies, with Bra's pressure earning a late consolation that made the closing stages uneasy for the home side.
The opening goal arrived just after the half-hour mark. D. Sorrentino put Torres ahead in the 33rd minute with a normal goal, the breakthrough coming without an assist recorded in the data. The home side's early lead was not without cost, as F. Nunziatini had been booked in the 24th minute and L. Di Stefano followed him into the referee's notebook four minutes later. Bra, meanwhile, had D. Lia cautioned early in the seventh minute and S. Tuzza in the 42nd, a sign of the visitors' combative approach.
Torres doubled their advantage in the 63rd minute. L. Di Stefano, already on a yellow card, scored what proved to be the decisive goal. With two goals on the board, the home side appeared to have taken control. Bra's response was delayed but persistent, and it finally came deep into stoppage time when I. Sinani pulled one back in the 90th minute. That goal, however, arrived too late to alter the outcome, though it did ensure Bra exited with a degree of respectability.
Bra's discipline unravelled in the second half. E. De Santis was booked in the 69th minute, R. Sganzerla followed in the 77th, and Torres' G. Mastinu also saw yellow in the 80th. The visitors finished with five yellow cards to Torres' three, a disparity that may reflect the growing frustration as the match slipped away. Despite the foul count, the data does not record a red card, so both sides finished with their full complement of outfield players.
The match was played in front of the usual play-out atmosphere, though specific attendance figures are not available. Torres made five substitutions to Bra's three, suggesting the home side had greater depth to call upon, though the data does not name the players involved or indicate how the changes influenced the flow of play. Without detailed statistics for possession, shots or expected goals, the analysis is necessarily stripped back, but the goal timeline and card counts point to a contest where Torres struck at key moments and Bra's fightback was too late.
For Torres, this result keeps them in Serie C for another season, a vital outcome in the relegation play-out. Bra, meanwhile, face the drop after finishing on the wrong side of a narrow defeat. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 home win, so the actual scoreline of 2-1 was slightly more generous to Torres than the pre-match expectation, though the visitors' late goal meant the margin was never comfortable. The play-out format leaves no margin for error, and Torres will be relieved to have secured survival with a performance that, while not dominant by the numbers available, was effective when it mattered most.
