Chievo reached the final of Serie D Girone B with a 2-1 extra-time victory over Milan II, a result that contradicted the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model. The model had projected a 2-1 win for the away side, giving Milan II a 41 per cent chance of victory against Chievo's 30 per cent, with a 29 per cent probability of a draw. While the data shows that Milan II may have been the nominal favourites, Chievo's ability to remain compact defensively and capitalise on a dramatic disciplinary collapse from the visitors proved decisive in a match that was ultimately decided by the fine margins of personnel and timing.
The opening goal arrived two minutes before half-time. Douglas Costa found the net for Chievo in the 43rd minute, giving the home side a slender lead to carry into the interval. No assist was recorded for the strike, which was a straightforward finish that put Chievo ahead against the run of the model's projection. Chievo held that advantage through the remainder of the first half, but the second half brought a swift response from the visitors. J. Sardo equalised for Milan II in the 53rd minute, restoring parity and setting the stage for a tense final half-hour of regular time. Neither side could find a winner in the 90 minutes, with the match level at 1-1 and both teams unable to break the deadlock.
The additional period was defined by a remarkable sequence of dismissals that reshaped the contest entirely. In the 96th minute, Chievo's L. Turano was sent off, reducing the home side to ten men and handing the numerical advantage to Milan II. Milan II failed to capitalise on the extra man, however, and were themselves reduced when L. Menon received a red card just two minutes later, in the 98th minute, evening the numbers at ten apiece. The final disciplinary blow came in the 110th minute, when Milan II's S. Branca was also dismissed, leaving the visitors with nine players for the remainder of extra time. This sequence of three red cards, two of which went to Milan II, was the defining statistical feature of the second half of extra time and shifted the balance of the contest decisively.
With Milan II down to nine men, Chievo seized the opportunity. R. Costantino converted a penalty in the 119th minute to give the home side a 2-1 lead, a goal that proved to be the winner. The spot-kick awarded deep into extra time was the decisive moment, coming after Milan II's numerical disadvantage had been established for nearly ten minutes. Chievo's ability to absorb the first sending-off and then exploit the subsequent dismissals was key, as they maintained their structural discipline while Milan II's discipline collapsed under the pressure of extra time.
The result means Chievo advance to the final of Serie D Girone B, where they will have the chance to secure promotion. For Milan II, the defeat is a bitter end to their campaign, having been in control of the tie for much of the match before the late dismissals turned the game. The Lemeister model's projection of an away win was undone entirely by the second-half extra-time disciplinary collapse, which saw Milan II lose two players to red cards in the space of 12 minutes. Chievo's victory was built on patience and opportunism, capitalising when the balance of the match shifted decisively in their favour during the final 20 minutes of extra time.
