Pistoiese were eliminated from the Serie D Girone D semi-finals after a 3-1 defeat to Piacenza, a result dictated by their inability to keep 11 men on the pitch and a costly defensive error. The Lemeister model had installed Pistoiese as slight favourites with a 41% win probability and a projected 1-0 scoreline, but the match unfolded in a manner that data alone could not fully capture: a dismissal and an own goal that fundamentally altered the tie. Without any shot, possession or passing data available for analysis, the narrative is drawn almost entirely from the goals and disciplinary record.
The opening goal arrived in the 23rd minute and went to the home side. S. Saporetti scored a normal goal without an assist, giving Pistoiese what appeared to be a promising lead. For a team that had the model's projected advantage, this was the expected script. Yet the advantage lasted only eight minutes. Piacenza's S. D'Agostino equalised in the 31st minute with another unassisted normal goal, restoring parity before half-time. The match was then finely balanced, with neither side having recorded a yellow or red card in the first period.
The turning point came immediately after the interval. In the 46th minute, Pistoiese's K. Rizq was shown a red card, reducing the home side to ten men for the remainder of the match. This numerical disadvantage proved impossible to overcome across 74 minutes of play, including extra time. Piacenza, encouraged by the extra space, gradually took control of the contest. The decisive blow came in the 95th minute, when A. Pellegrino scored an own goal that gave Piacenza the lead for the first time. With no goals in the data from open play for either side after the red card, this own goal was the clear statistical separator. S. D'Agostino then sealed the result with his second of the match in the 107th minute, completing a 3-1 victory and a brace for the Piacenza forward.
The goals and disciplinary events alone tell a clear story. Pistoiese's early lead was sustainable at 11 versus 11, but the red card to Rizq removed any margin for error. The own goal conceded in extra time was the product of extended pressure against a tired and depleted defence. Piacenza's two normal goals from D'Agostino, one in regulation and one in extra time, were a direct consequence of the home side's inability to manage the game with ten men. The absence of any Piacenza yellow card in the data suggests they avoided the disciplinary indiscipline that cost Pistoiese the tie. No substitutes are recorded for either side, indicating that both teams relied on their starting line-ups throughout.
The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 home win, with Pistoiese given a 41% chance and Piacenza only 28%. The actual result deviated sharply from that projection, underscoring how a single sending-off can upend even a favourable data prediction. The match also featured no penalties and no further goals in regular time after the 31st minute, meaning the tie was effectively decided in extra time by the own goal and the brace from D'Agostino.
For Pistoiese, this defeat ends their semi-final run in Serie D Girone D. The red card to Rizq will be a defining moment, as they were unable to recover from the numerical disadvantage. Piacenza advance to the final, having taken full advantage of the extra man and the set-piece distraction that led to the own goal. The result confirms that even when a team is favoured by the Lemeister model, match discipline remains the most volatile and decisive variable. Piacenza's ability to avoid cards while capitalising on Pistoiese's error provides a clear lesson in game management at this level of Italian football.
