Parana v Toledo: the model read
Parana meet Toledo in the Paranaense - 2 quarter-finals. The model makes Parana the most likely outcome at 56%, with the full read 56% PAR, 28% draw, 16% TOL.
Parana rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1661 to 1408. Recent form leans Parana, 73% against 38%. Attacking output favors Parana on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 19%, over 2.5 goals around 46%. Draw no bet leans Parana at 78%; double chance reads Parana or draw 84%, Toledo or draw 44%.
Parana arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 11 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Paranavaí, D 1-1 @ Paranavaí, W 2-1 v Araucária, W 2-0 @ Araucária.
Toledo are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 2 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-6 @ Parana, L 0-2 v Parana, W 1-0 @ Paranavaí, D 0-0 v Rio Branco PR.
Parana hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Parana 6-1 Toledo.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
