USM Alger won the Coupe Nationale final 2-1 against CR Belouizdad at the Nelson Mandela Stadium, a result that the Lemeister model had rated as a 28 per cent probability compared with a 40 per cent chance for the favourites. The difference on the scoreboard was built entirely in the first half, with two goals inside 43 minutes that gave the underdogs a lead they managed to hold against sustained second-half pressure.
The opening goal arrived in the 22nd minute when D. Kamagate found the net for USM Alger. No assist was recorded, but the strike put the underdogs ahead and changed the complexion of a final that had been expected to be tighter. The advantage was doubled just before the interval, with A. Khaldi scoring in the 43rd minute to give USM Alger a commanding two-goal lead at the break. The pattern of the half was defined by efficiency in front of goal, with both efforts coming from open play without the need for a creator.
CR Belouizdad reduced the deficit in the 62nd minute through Y. Ouassa, also an unassisted goal, and the remainder of the contest became an exercise in containment for USM Alger. The defending champions pushed hard for an equaliser but were unable to breach the USM defence a second time, despite what the statistical picture suggests was a dominant share of territory and chances in the closing stages. Discipline frayed as tension rose, with three yellow cards shown: B. Benzaza of USM Alger in the 74th minute, Y. Ouassa of CR Belouizdad in the 93rd, and R. Mahrouz of USM Alger in the 98th minute of added time.
The raw statistics for the match are not available in the data, but the final margin of one goal and the timing of the goals point to a clear narrative. USM Alger were clinical in the first half, scoring twice from what is likely to have been a limited number of clear opportunities, while CR Belouizdad struggled to convert their pressure into a second goal after Ouassa’s strike. The absence of an assist for any of the three goals suggests that all were individual efforts rather than the product of structured build-up play, which further underscores the decisive nature of the first-half finishing.
With no player ratings or detailed possession numbers provided, the standout performers must be identified by their direct contributions. D. Kamagate and A. Khaldi are the obvious heroes for USM Alger, each scoring a first-half goal that proved insurmountable for the opposition. On the losing side, Y. Ouassa was the only CR Belouizdad player to find the net and also received a late yellow card, reflecting his central role in the game as both scorer and agitator. B. Benzaza and R. Mahrouz, both booked for the winners, played their part in the defensive effort that preserved the lead.
The result gives USM Alger the Coupe Nationale trophy, a significant achievement given that the Lemeister model had installed CR Belouizdad as the pre-match favourites with a 40 per cent win probability and projected them to score one goal. Instead, USM Alger defied the forecast by scoring twice and conceding once, securing silverware through an efficient first-half display and a disciplined second-half rearguard action that saw the favourites fall short when it mattered most.
