Where the market is wrong on Reipas v MyPa
Reipas meet MyPa in the Kakkonen - Lohko A group a at Lahden kisapuisto, Lahti. The model makes Reipas the most likely outcome at 48%, with the full read 48% REI, 25% draw, 27% MYP.
The baseline ratings are close, 1516 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Reipas, 50% against 33%. Attacking output favors Reipas on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 84%, over 2.5 goals around 94%. Draw no bet leans Reipas at 64%; double chance reads Reipas or draw 73%, MyPa or draw 52%.
Reipas arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 10 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 v MyPa, L 1-4 @ PuiU Helsinki, D 1-1 v HIFK Helsinki, L 2-3 @ HPS.
MyPa are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 @ Reipas, L 2-5 @ HPS, W 2-0 v Union Plaani, L 0-4 @ HIFK Helsinki.
The market prices REI at 70% implied. Our number sits apart on MyPa: a 13.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
