Progreso v Cerro Largo: the model read
Progreso meet Cerro Largo in the Primera División - Apertura apertura - 14 at Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo. The model makes Cerro Largo the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 28% PRO, 33% draw, 39% CER.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Cerro Largo, 45% against 30%. Attacking output favors Cerro Largo on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 27%. Draw no bet leans Cerro Largo at 59%; double chance reads Progreso or draw 61%, Cerro Largo or draw 72%.
Progreso arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Deportivo Maldonado, L 0-2 @ Wanderers, L 1-2 v Albion FC, W 2-1 @ Danubio.
Cerro Largo are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Defensor Sporting, D 0-0 @ Liverpool Montevideo, W 2-0 v Cerro, W 3-0 v Boston River.
Cerro Largo hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
