Arsenal Tula II v Ryazan

Arsenal Tula II meet Ryazan in the Second League - Group 3 group 3 - 16. The model makes Ryazan the most likely outcome at 51%, with the full read 22% ARS, 27% draw, 51% RYA.

Ryazan rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1569 to 1400. Recent form leans Ryazan, 63% against 33%. Attacking output favors Ryazan on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 72%. Draw no bet leans Ryazan at 70%; double chance reads Arsenal Tula II or draw 49%, Ryazan or draw 78%.

Arsenal Tula II arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 3 scored and 17 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 v Ryazan, L 1-3 @ Kvant, L 0-4 v Salyut-Belgorod, L 1-4 @ Orel.

Ryazan are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 @ Arsenal Tula II, W 3-0 v SKA Khabarovsk II, L 0-2 @ Shumbrat, L 1-2 v FK Spartak Tambov.

Arsenal Tula II hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Arsenal Tula II 0-5 Ryazan.

The market prices ARS at 15% implied. Our number sits apart on Arsenal Tula II: a 7.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.