Iceland v Estonia: the model read
Iceland meet Estonia in the UEFA Nations League 1.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 30% against 35%. Attacking output favors Iceland on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Iceland arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Argentina, L 0-1 @ Japan, D 1-1 @ Haiti, D 2-2 @ Canada.
Estonia are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Lithuania, W 1-0 v Faroe Islands, L 0-2 @ Rwanda, D 1-1 @ Kenya.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2023: Iceland 1-1 Estonia.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
