Sergipe v Confiança: the model read
Sergipe meet Confiança in the Sergipano final. The model makes Sergipe the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 41% SER, 33% draw, 26% CON.
Sergipe rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1400. Recent form leans Sergipe, 57% against 33%. Attacking output favors Sergipe on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 28%, over 2.5 goals around 25%. Draw no bet leans Sergipe at 62%; double chance reads Sergipe or draw 74%, Confiança or draw 59%.
Sergipe arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v ASA, D 1-1 @ ASA, D 1-1 v Serra Branca, L 2-3 @ Decisão.
Confiança are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v AO Itabaiana, L 0-2 @ Botafogo PB, L 1-2 v Barra, D 1-1 @ Ypiranga-RS.
Sergipe hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sergipe 1-0 Confiança.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
