América SE v Sergipe: the model read
América SE meet Sergipe in the Sergipano semi-finals. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 33% AMÉ, 35% draw, 33% SER.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 57%. Attacking output favors Sergipe on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 28%, over 2.5 goals around 19%. Draw no bet leans América SE at 50%; double chance reads América SE or draw 67%, Sergipe or draw 67%.
América SE arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ AO Itabaiana, D 1-1 @ Sergipe, D 1-1 v Sergipe, W 3-0 @ Lagarto.
Sergipe are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v ASA, D 1-1 @ ASA, D 1-1 v Serra Branca, L 2-3 @ Decisão.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sergipe 1-1 América SE.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
