Lagarto v América SE: the model read
Lagarto meet América SE in the Sergipano quarter-finals. The model makes América SE the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 31% LAG, 34% draw, 35% AMÉ.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 57%. Attacking output favors Lagarto on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 23%. Draw no bet leans América SE at 54%; double chance reads Lagarto or draw 65%, América SE or draw 69%.
Lagarto arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ CSA, D 1-1 v CSA, W 1-0 v Decisão, W 2-1 @ Treze.
América SE are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ AO Itabaiana, D 1-1 @ Sergipe, D 1-1 v Sergipe, W 3-0 @ Lagarto.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
