IAPE v Maranhão: the model read
IAPE meet Maranhão in the Maranhense final at Estadio Municipal Nhozinho Santos, undefined. The model makes IAPE the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% IAP, 34% draw, 31% MAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 38%. Attacking output favors IAPE on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 22%. Draw no bet leans IAPE at 54%; double chance reads IAPE or draw 69%, Maranhão or draw 65%.
IAPE arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Maracanã, L 1-3 v Sampaio Correa, D 1-1 v Iguatu, D 2-2 @ Moto Club.
Maranhão are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 2 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Ferroviária, W 2-1 v Ypiranga-RS, L 0-1 v Inter De Limeira, D 0-0 @ Ituano.
IAPE hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: IAPE 1-0 Maranhão.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
