Floresta v Ceara: the model read
Floresta meet Ceara in the Cearense - 1 semi-finals. The model makes Floresta the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% FLO, 33% draw, 33% CEA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Floresta, 48% against 38%. Attacking output favors Ceara on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 25%. Draw no bet leans Floresta at 51%; double chance reads Floresta or draw 67%, Ceara or draw 66%.
Floresta arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Maringá, D 0-0 @ Caxias, D 0-0 @ Guarani Campinas, W 2-1 v Barra.
Ceara are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 4-3 @ São Bernardo, L 0-1 v CRB, D 1-1 @ America Mineiro, D 0-0 v Athletic Club.
Ceara hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 0 across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ceara 4-0 Floresta.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
