Sampaio Correa v Maranhão: the model read
Sampaio Correa meet Maranhão in the Maranhense semi-finals. The model makes Sampaio Correa the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 45% SAM, 32% draw, 23% MAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sampaio Correa, 55% against 38%. Attacking output favors Sampaio Correa on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 26%, over 2.5 goals around 31%. Draw no bet leans Sampaio Correa at 67%; double chance reads Sampaio Correa or draw 77%, Maranhão or draw 55%.
Sampaio Correa arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Trem, L 0-2 v Trem, L 0-1 v Iguatu, W 3-1 @ IAPE.
Maranhão are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 2 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Ferroviária, W 2-1 v Ypiranga-RS, L 0-1 v Inter De Limeira, D 0-0 @ Ituano.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Maranhão 0-2 Sampaio Correa.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
