FS Jelgava v FK Liepaja

FS Jelgava meet FK Liepaja in the Virsliga regular season - 24 at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava. The model makes FK Liepaja the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 31% FS , 31% draw, 38% FK .

The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans FK Liepaja, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors FK Liepaja on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans FK Liepaja at 55%; double chance reads FS Jelgava or draw 62%, FK Liepaja or draw 69%.

FS Jelgava arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 2 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v FK Liepaja, L 0-1 v Rīgas FS, L 0-2 @ Rīgas FS, L 0-3 @ Riga.

FK Liepaja are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ FS Jelgava, L 0-2 v Austria Vienna, W 2-1 @ Dečić, L 0-1 @ Auda.

FK Liepaja hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FS Jelgava 0-2 FK Liepaja.

The market prices FS at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.