Mafra v Amarante: the model read
Mafra meet Amarante in the Liga 3 promotion group - 10 at Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra. The model makes Amarante the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 26% MAF, 31% draw, 43% AMA.
Amarante rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1662 to 1512. Recent form leans Amarante, 74% against 50%. Attacking output favors Amarante on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 40%. Draw no bet leans Amarante at 63%; double chance reads Mafra or draw 57%, Amarante or draw 74%.
Mafra arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Alverca, L 2-3 @ FC Fredericia, W 2-0 @ Esbjerg, L 1-3 @ CF Os Belenenses.
Amarante are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Chaves, W 3-1 @ Guimaraes B, W 1-0 v União Santarém, D 0-0 @ Trofense.
Amarante hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mafra 1-4 Amarante.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
