Mafra v Varzim: the model read
Mafra meet Varzim in the Liga 3 promotion group - 2 at Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra. The model makes Mafra the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% MAF, 32% draw, 33% VAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Mafra, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Mafra on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Mafra at 51%; double chance reads Mafra or draw 67%, Varzim or draw 65%.
Mafra arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Alverca, L 2-3 @ FC Fredericia, W 2-0 @ Esbjerg, L 1-3 @ CF Os Belenenses.
Varzim are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Tondela, D 2-2 @ União Santarém, L 1-2 v CF Os Belenenses, L 0-1 @ Academica.
Mafra hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Varzim 0-2 Mafra.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
