Where the market is wrong on North Texas v Real Monarchs
North Texas meet Real Monarchs in the MLS Next Pro group stage at Choctaw Stadium, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans North Texas, 50% against 30%. Attacking output favors North Texas on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.
North Texas arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Real Monarchs, D 1-1 @ St. Louis City II, D 1-1 v Minnesota United II, D 0-0 v Austin II.
Real Monarchs are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ North Texas, W 3-0 v Tacoma Defiance, L 1-4 @ Colorado Rapids II, L 0-3 @ Houston Dynamo FC II.
The market prices NOR at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
