Where the market is wrong on Atlanta United II v Chicago Fire II
Atlanta United II meet Chicago Fire II in the MLS Next Pro group stage at Fifth Third Stadium, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 55%. Attacking output favors Atlanta United II on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 88%, over 2.5 goals around 91%. Draw no bet leans Atlanta United II at 51%; double chance reads Atlanta United II or draw 64%, Chicago Fire II or draw 63%.
Atlanta United II arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v Orlando City II, W 2-1 v Chicago Fire II, L 1-2 v New York RB II, L 0-1 @ Chattanooga.
Chicago Fire II are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 15 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Inter Miami II, L 1-2 @ Atlanta United II, W 2-0 v Orlando City II, L 2-4 v Toronto II.
Atlanta United II hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Atlanta United II 2-1 Chicago Fire II.
The market prices ATL at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Chicago Fire II: a 5.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
