Where the market is wrong on Kongahälla v Onsala
Kongahälla meet Onsala in the Division 2 - Västra Götaland västra götaland - 15. The model makes Onsala the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 28% KON, 27% draw, 44% ONS.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Onsala, 38% against 25%. Attacking output favors Onsala on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 71%, over 2.5 goals around 78%. Draw no bet leans Onsala at 61%; double chance reads Kongahälla or draw 56%, Onsala or draw 72%.
Kongahälla arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Jonsered, L 0-3 v Hestrafor, W 2-1 @ Galtabacks, D 2-2 @ Lindome.
Onsala are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 v Landvetter IS, W 2-1 @ Böljan, D 1-1 v Torslanda, L 2-4 @ Västra Frölunda.
The market prices KON at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output