Vänersborgs FK v Herrestads

Vänersborgs FK meet Herrestads in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland norra götaland - 15. The model makes Herrestads the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 28% VÄN, 28% draw, 44% HER.

The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Herrestads, 55% against 40%. Attacking output favors Herrestads on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 66%, over 2.5 goals around 72%. Draw no bet leans Herrestads at 62%; double chance reads Vänersborgs FK or draw 56%, Herrestads or draw 72%.

Vänersborgs FK arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 7 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Motala, L 2-4 v Stenungsund, L 1-3 @ Husqvarna, L 1-3 v Skara.

Herrestads are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Skara, L 1-2 v IFK Skövde, D 2-2 @ Vänersborgs IF, W 1-0 v Motala.

Herrestads hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Herrestads 1-1 Vänersborgs FK.

The market prices VÄN at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Herrestads: a 4.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.