Gagra v Samgurali: the model read
Gagra meet Samgurali in the Erovnuli Liga regular season - 19 at David Petriashvili Stadium, Tbilisi. The model makes Gagra the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% GAG, 30% draw, 33% SAM.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 48%. Attacking output favors Samgurali on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans Gagra at 53%; double chance reads Gagra or draw 67%, Samgurali or draw 63%.
Gagra arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Samtskhe Akhaltsikhe, W 3-1 v BKMA, D 2-2 v FC Urartu, D 0-0 v Samgurali.
Samgurali are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ WIT Georgia, W 1-0 @ Spaeri, D 0-0 @ Gagra, L 3-5 @ Dinamo Tbilisi.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
