Keflavik v IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Keflavik meet IBV Vestmannaeyjar in the Úrvalsdeild regular season - 20.

The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Keflavik, 50% against 33%. Attacking output favors Keflavik on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 75%, over 2.5 goals around 79%. Draw no bet leans Keflavik at 57%; double chance reads Keflavik or draw 69%, IBV Vestmannaeyjar or draw 59%.

Keflavik arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v IBV Vestmannaeyjar, W 2-0 @ Thor Akureyri, L 0-1 @ Stjarnan, W 3-0 v KA Akureyri.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Keflavik, L 1-3 v IA Akranes, D 2-2 @ Vikingur Reykjavik, L 1-2 v Fram Reykjavik.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Keflavik 1-0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar.

The market prices KEF at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.