Where the market is wrong on Hässleholms IF v Atvidabergs FF
Hässleholms IF meet Atvidabergs FF in the Ettan - Södra södra - 15 at Osteras IP, Hassleholm. The model makes Atvidabergs FF the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 31% HÄS, 28% draw, 40% ATV.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1601, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Atvidabergs FF, 66% against 50%. Attacking output favors Atvidabergs FF on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 71%, over 2.5 goals around 73%. Draw no bet leans Atvidabergs FF at 56%; double chance reads Hässleholms IF or draw 60%, Atvidabergs FF or draw 69%.
Hässleholms IF arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Olympic, W 2-1 @ Karlskrona, W 4-2 v Tvååker, W 2-1 @ Räppe.
Atvidabergs FF are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 15 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Rosengård, W 3-0 @ Utsikten, W 4-0 v Eskilsminne, D 2-2 v Tvååker.
The market prices HÄS at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on Atvidabergs FF: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 63 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
