Alaves v Rayo Vallecano: the model read
Alaves meet Rayo Vallecano in the Copa del Rey round of 16 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 50%. Attacking output favors Alaves on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Alaves arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 9 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Villarreal, D 1-1 @ Rayo Vallecano, W 3-0 v Getafe, D 1-1 @ Racing Santander.
Rayo Vallecano are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 2-5 @ Barcelona, D 1-1 v Alaves, L 1-2 @ Sevilla, L 0-3 @ Ipswich.
Rayo Vallecano hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
