Where the market is wrong on San Martin S.J. v Tristan Suarez
San Martin S.J. meet Tristan Suarez in the Primera Nacional regular season - 21. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 28% SAN, 37% draw, 35% TRI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1483 to 1565, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Tristan Suarez, 61% against 47%. Attacking output favors San Martin S.J. on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 17%, over 2.5 goals around 10%. Draw no bet leans Tristan Suarez at 55%; double chance reads San Martin S.J. or draw 65%, Tristan Suarez or draw 72%.
San Martin S.J. arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Club Atlético Güemes, L 0-1 v Chacarita Juniors, W 2-0 v Agropecuario, L 1-2 @ Gimnasia Jujuy.
Tristan Suarez are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 2 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Nueva Chicago, L 0-1 @ Temperley, D 0-0 @ Chacarita Juniors, W 1-0 @ Deportivo Maipu.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tristan Suarez 2-1 San Martin S.J..
The market prices SAN at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Tristan Suarez: a 15.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
