Monterey Bay v Orange County SC

Monterey Bay meet Orange County SC in the USL Championship group stage at Cardinale Stadium, undefined. The model makes Orange County SC the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 29% MON, 29% draw, 41% ORA.

Orange County SC rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1523 to 1400. Recent form leans Orange County SC, 53% against 33%. Attacking output favors Orange County SC on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 60%. Draw no bet leans Orange County SC at 59%; double chance reads Monterey Bay or draw 59%, Orange County SC or draw 71%.

Monterey Bay arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Orange County SC, L 2-3 @ Phoenix Rising, L 2-3 v Las Vegas Lights, D 0-0 @ San Antonio.

Orange County SC are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Monterey Bay, L 0-3 v Colorado Springs, D 2-2 @ Hartford Athletic, D 1-1 @ Rhode Island.

Monterey Bay hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Monterey Bay 1-2 Orange County SC.

The market prices MON at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on Orange County SC: a 11.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.