Where the market is wrong on Chapecoense-sc v Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc meet Sao Paulo in the Serie A regular season - 24 at Arena Condá, Chapecó.
The baseline ratings are close, 1468 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 42%. Attacking output favors Chapecoense-sc on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Sao Paulo at 51%; double chance reads Chapecoense-sc or draw 65%, Sao Paulo or draw 66%.
Chapecoense-sc arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Sao Paulo, D 3-3 v Bahia, L 1-2 @ Coritiba, L 0-2 @ Cruzeiro.
Sao Paulo are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Chapecoense-sc, W 3-1 v Bolívar, D 1-1 v Coritiba, D 1-1 @ Bolívar.
Sao Paulo hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Chapecoense-sc 1-0 Sao Paulo.
The market prices CHA at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Chapecoense-sc: a 8.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
