Where the market is wrong on Vitoria v Palmeiras
Vitoria meet Palmeiras in the Serie A regular season - 21 at Barradao, Salvador. The model makes Palmeiras the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 29% VIT, 30% draw, 41% PAL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1673, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Palmeiras, 75% against 65%. Attacking output favors Vitoria on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 50%. Draw no bet leans Palmeiras at 59%; double chance reads Vitoria or draw 59%, Palmeiras or draw 71%.
Vitoria arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Remo, D 0-0 @ Botafogo, W 1-0 v Vasco DA Gama, W 2-1 v Fortaleza EC.
Palmeiras are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Atletico-MG, W 3-1 @ Coritiba, W 1-0 v Chapecoense-sc, W 4-1 v Junior.
The market prices VIT at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Vitoria: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
