Where the market is wrong on Botafogo v Gremio
Botafogo meet Gremio in the Serie A regular season - 21 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro.
The baseline ratings are close, 1501 to 1456, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 42%. Attacking output favors Gremio on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.
Botafogo arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v RB Bragantino, D 0-0 v Palmeiras, L 0-3 @ Flamengo, L 2-3 v Atletico Paranaense.
Gremio are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Vasco DA Gama, L 0-1 @ Vitoria, W 3-1 v Internacional, W 3-1 v Chapecoense-sc.
The market prices BOT at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on Gremio: a 13.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
