Where the market is wrong on Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati
Philadelphia Union meet FC Cincinnati in the Major League Soccer regular season - 24 at Subaru Park, Philadelphia.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans FC Cincinnati, 63% against 50%. Attacking output favors FC Cincinnati on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.7 per match.
Philadelphia Union arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ New York Red Bulls, D 1-1 @ Austin, D 2-2 v Inter Miami, W 3-2 @ New York City FC.
FC Cincinnati are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Nashville SC, D 1-1 v Seattle Sounders, W 2-1 v New York City FC, D 1-1 @ Orlando City SC.
FC Cincinnati hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: FC Cincinnati 0-1 Philadelphia Union.
The market prices PHI at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Cincinnati: a 17.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
