New York City FC v Chicago Fire

New York City FC meet Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer regular season - 19 at Yankee Stadium, undefined. The model makes Chicago Fire the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 35% NEW, 29% draw, 37% CHI.

The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 55%. Attacking output favors Chicago Fire on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 72%, over 2.5 goals around 73%. Draw no bet leans Chicago Fire at 52%; double chance reads New York City FC or draw 63%, Chicago Fire or draw 65%.

New York City FC arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Columbus Crew, L 1-2 @ Nashville SC, L 0-1 @ Columbus Crew, D 1-1 @ New York Red Bulls.

Chicago Fire are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Inter Miami, W 2-1 v Toronto FC, W 2-0 @ CF Montreal, W 3-1 @ DC United.

New York City FC hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Chicago Fire 1-3 New York City FC.

The market prices NEW at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Chicago Fire: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 60 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.