Where the market is wrong on Club Guarani v Sportivo Luqueno
Club Guarani meet Sportivo Luqueno in the Division Profesional - Clausura clausura - 1 at Estadio Erico Galeano, Capiata. The model makes Club Guarani the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% CLU, 33% draw, 32% SPO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 38%. Attacking output favors Sportivo Luqueno on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 35%, over 2.5 goals around 27%. Draw no bet leans Club Guarani at 51%; double chance reads Club Guarani or draw 68%, Sportivo Luqueno or draw 66%.
Club Guarani arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Sportivo Luqueno, L 1-2 @ Deportivo Recoleta, W 1-0 v Sportivo Ameliano, D 0-0 @ Cerro Porteno.
Sportivo Luqueno are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Club Guarani, L 1-2 v Olimpia, D 0-0 @ Club Sp. San Lorenzo, L 2-3 v Libertad Asuncion.
Club Guarani hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Club Guarani 1-2 Sportivo Luqueno.
The market prices CLU at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Sportivo Luqueno: a 6.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
