Liverpool Montevideo v Penarol: the model read
Liverpool Montevideo meet Penarol in the Primera División - Clausura semi-finals at Estadio Centenario, Montevideo. The model makes Penarol the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 33% LIV, 33% draw, 34% PEN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 50%. Attacking output favors Penarol on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 25%. Draw no bet leans Penarol at 51%; double chance reads Liverpool Montevideo or draw 66%, Penarol or draw 67%.
Liverpool Montevideo arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Defensor Sporting, L 1-2 v Cerro, D 0-0 v Cerro Largo, W 1-0 @ Boston River.
Penarol are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Boston River, D 1-1 @ Racing Montevideo, W 1-0 @ Cerro, L 0-1 v Central Espanol.
Penarol hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Penarol 2-1 Liverpool Montevideo.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
