Inter Club d'Escaldes v Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

Inter Club d'Escaldes and Atlètic Club d'Escaldes played out a 2-2 draw in the Super Cup final at the Estadi Nacional, a result that the Lemeister model had seen as slightly more likely to favour the former. The model gave Inter a 39 per cent chance of winning, with the draw at 29 per cent and an Atlètic victory at 32 per cent, projecting a 2-1 win for Inter. The final scoreline, and the pattern of two quick equalisers either side of half-time, told the story of a contest that statistics alone could not separate.

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes struck first in the 15th minute with a normal goal. Inter responded through F. Chouaib, who scored a normal goal in the 33rd minute to level the match before the interval. The second half exploded into life with two goals in three minutes. Inter took the lead in the 50th minute with another normal goal, only for Atlètic to equalise three minutes later, in the 53rd minute. The frantic spell either side of the break defined the rhythm of a final that never settled.

The data shows a match of high tension and frequent interruption. Seven yellow cards were issued: three to Atlètic Club d'Escaldes, in the 18th, 45th and 90th minutes, and four to Inter Club d'Escaldes, in the 36th, 62nd, 88th and 93rd minutes. The high card count indicated a fiercely contested final, with both sides committing to physical challenges as they chased the trophy. No substitutions were made by either team, suggesting both managers trusted their starting XIs to see out the 90-plus minutes.

F. Chouaib was the only nameable player on the scoresheet, his 33rd-minute equaliser proving crucial in swinging momentum back towards Inter after they had fallen behind. The lack of any other nameable scorers or assist providers meant that the goals were a collective effort, with neither side able to point to an individual match-winner in open play. The frequency of normal goals, with no penalties or own goals, reflected a contest in which both attacks were effective from general play.

Without detailed possession, shot or expected goals data, the narrative relies on the goal timings and discipline record. The early Atlètic goal in the 15th minute gave them an advantage, but Inter’s response through Chouaib before half-time showed resilience. The quickfire double in the second half, with Inter scoring in the 50th minute and Atlètic replying in the 53rd, confirmed that neither defence could hold a lead for long. The aggregate of four goals from four different scorers underlined the spread of threat across both rosters.

The result leaves the Super Cup final level after 90 minutes. With the Lemeister model having projected a 2-1 win for Inter, the draw represents a slight upset in terms of the final margin, though the statistical closeness of the contest was reflected in the model’s narrow 39 per cent for Inter and 32 per cent for Atlètic. Both sides will now likely face extra time or penalties to decide the winner, with the disciplinary record already high and neither team having used a substitution. The final stands as an evenly matched contest that the numbers suggested might tilt to Inter, but which the goals on the night kept perfectly balanced.