Tacuarembo v Penarol: the model read
Tacuarembo meet Penarol in the Copa Uruguay quarter-finals. The model makes Penarol the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 28% TAC, 34% draw, 38% PEN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Penarol, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Penarol on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 24%. Draw no bet leans Penarol at 58%; double chance reads Tacuarembo or draw 62%, Penarol or draw 72%.
Tacuarembo arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Plaza Colonia, L 0-2 @ La Luz, D 0-0 v Cerrito, L 0-2 @ Atenas.
Penarol are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Boston River, D 1-1 @ Racing Montevideo, W 1-0 @ Cerro, L 0-1 v Central Espanol.
Penarol hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Tacuarembo 1-2 Penarol.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
