Mingəçevir defeated Səbail 4-1 in the Birinci Dasta Regular Season - 27, a result that contradicted the pre-match forecast. The Lemeister model had made Səbail slight favourites with a 35 per cent win probability, but the home side turned in a ruthlessly efficient attacking performance that was decided by superior chance creation and Səbail's disciplinary collapse.
The first goal arrived in the 13th minute when E. Bayramov found the net. Mingəçevir doubled their advantage before the half-hour mark, E. Mustafayev scoring in the 29th minute to put the hosts firmly in control. Səbail responded shortly before half-time, Q. Safarov pulling one back in the 41st minute to make the score 2-1 at the break. The second half began with Mingəçevir restoring their two-goal cushion, A. Eyubov scoring in the 53rd minute to make it 3-1. The home side continued to press and eventually sealed the victory late on, K. Quliyev converting a penalty in the second minute of added time to complete the 4-1 scoreline.
The statistical story underscores Mingəçevir's superiority. They held 63 per cent possession, a dominant share that allowed them to control the tempo and create sustained pressure. Their passing was efficient, with a 79 per cent completion rate on 127 passes, compared to Səbail's 80 per cent on just 114 attempts. The home side registered 12 shots, with seven on target, while Səbail managed only eight shots and four on target. On expected goals, Mingəçevir accumulated 2.5 xG against Səbail's 1.2, a clear reflection of the quality of chances they manufactured. Mingəçevir also earned four corners to Səbail's two, further evidence of their territorial dominance.
The match was notable for Səbail's disciplinary problems, which effectively ended any chance of a comeback. F. Mammadli was sent off in the 77th minute for a red card offence, leaving the visitors a man down for the final quarter of the game. The situation worsened for Səbail when L. Rzayev received a yellow card in the 85th minute, followed immediately by a second yellow and subsequent red, reducing them to nine men for the closing stages. This left Səbail unable to mount any meaningful pressure as Mingəçevir added the late penalty.
The standout performer for Mingəçevir was E. Mustafayev, who scored once and earned a match rating of 8.2, contributing two key passes and four winning duels. E. Bayramov, who opened the scoring, also impressed with a rating of 7.9, registering three shots and two key passes. For Səbail, Q. Safarov secured an 8.2 rating for his goal, but the defensive unit struggled, with L. Rzayev recording a rating of just 6.0 before his dismissal. The defence as a whole was porous, and the midfield failed to shield effectively, allowing Mingəçevir's attackers too much space in dangerous areas.
The result moves Mingəçevir up to eighth place with 33 points from 27 matches, while Səbail remain fifth on 36 points. The defeat, compounded by two red cards, leaves Səbail with work to do if they are to maintain their push for promotion, with the gap to the top three now five points. Mingəçevir, by contrast, will draw confidence from a clinical display that punished their opponents' indiscipline and poor game management. The Lemeister model's forecast of a tight contest was undone by Səbail's inability to cope with Mingəçevir's direct attacking approach and their own lack of composure under pressure.
