Morocco v Senegal

Morocco meet Senegal in the African Nations Championship semi-finals at Mandela National Stadium, Kampala. The model makes Morocco the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 41% MOR, 30% draw, 30% SEN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1707 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Morocco, 80% against 65%. Attacking output favors Senegal on expected goals, 2.5 to 2.0 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 57%. Draw no bet leans Morocco at 58%; double chance reads Morocco or draw 70%, Senegal or draw 59%.

Morocco arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ France, W 3-0 @ Canada, D 1-1 @ Netherlands, W 4-2 v Haiti.

Senegal are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Belgium, W 5-0 v Iraq, L 2-3 @ Norway, L 1-3 @ France.

Morocco hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Senegal 0-3 Morocco.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.