Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab shared four goals and a point each in a 2-2 draw at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, a result that the Lemeister model had expected to go the home side's way, giving them a 50 per cent win probability and projecting a 3-1 victory. The data shows a match of high volume but contrasting efficiency, with Al-Qadisiyah dominating possession and creating a heavy volume of shots, yet still requiring a late equaliser from M. Retegui to earn a share of the spoils.
The opening goal arrived in the 16th minute when C. Bonsu Baah found the net, assisted by M. Retegui. Al-Qadisiyah had started with intent, and that strike was the early reward for their territorial dominance. Al Shabab responded before half-time, drawing level in the 35th minute through A. Azaizeh, with B. Al Sayyali providing the assist. The score at the interval reflected a game that was still finely balanced, despite the home side's control of the ball.
Al Shabab seized the initiative early in the second half. A. Azaizeh struck again in the 54th minute, this time assisted by A. Hamdallah, to put the visitors ahead. That goal came just a minute after Otavio had been booked for the home side, and it appeared to shift the momentum. Al Shabab's expected goals of 3.55 underscores that their finishing was incisive, converting two of their eight shots on target from a total of 12 attempts.
Al-Qadisiyah's response was relentless. They ended the match with 64 per cent possession, 26 total shots, and 13 corner kicks, but their attacking output was inefficient. Despite 22 shots from inside the box, they generated only two goals from their eight shots on target, with an expected goals figure of 2.99. The equaliser came in the 76th minute from M. Retegui, who was the most impactful attacker on the pitch, balancing his goal with the assist for the opening strike.
The complexion of the match shifted further when Wesley Hoedt was sent off for Al Shabab in the 76th minute, a moment that coincided with the equalising goal. Reduced to 10 men, the visitors had to defend deep. Saad Yaslam Balobaid was booked in the 84th minute, and goalkeeper Marcelo Grohe was cautioned in added time, but Al Shabab held on. Both teams recorded goalkeeper saves of 2.11 prevented goals, indicating high-quality stops at either end. The home side completed 554 passes at 88 per cent accuracy, compared to Al Shabab's 332 at 81 per cent, a reflection of the territorial control that ultimately did not yield more than a draw.
For Al-Qadisiyah, the result is a missed opportunity to close ground in the Pro League. Their dominant statistics did not translate into maximum points, and the failure to convert more of their 22 inside-box shots against a depleted opponent will be a concern. For Al Shabab, a point earned while playing the final quarter of the game with 10 men represents a resilient outcome, built on clinical finishing from A. Azaizeh. The draw leaves both sides in the mid-table picture, with the home team left to reflect on what might have been given the volume of their attacking work.
