Al Riyadh overturned a two-goal deficit to win 3-2 at Al-Ettifaq, a result that the Lemeister model had given only a 34 per cent probability, with the home side rated the narrow pre-match favourite at 37 per cent. The decisive factor was ruthlessness in converting chances: Riyadh's expected goals of 1.91 was slightly inferior to Al-Ettifaq's 1.97, yet the visitors scored three times from seven shots on target while the hosts managed two from five. The away side also generated the higher volume of attempts, finishing with 19 total shots to 13.
Al-Ettifaq began superbly. G. Wijnaldum opened the scoring in the fifth minute from a M. Dembele assist, a goal that gave the home side early control. The lead was doubled in the 33rd minute when K. Al Ghannam converted from a Wijnaldum assist, making it 2-0. At that point the match looked to be following the model's projection favouring the home team. Al Riyadh, however, struck back quickly. L. Antunes pulled one back in the 38th minute with an unassisted goal, halving the deficit before the interval and shifting the momentum.
The second half confirmed the turnaround. Antunes scored his second of the match in the 54th minute, this time from a T. Okou assist, to level the scores at 2-2. Al Riyadh completed the comeback in the 90th minute when M. Sylla scored the winner, assisted by H. A. Bahri E., sealing the three points. The timing of the goals was critical: two of Riyadh's three came in the opening nine minutes of each half, while the late winner denied Al-Ettifaq any time to respond.
Possession was almost evenly split, with Al-Ettifaq holding 51 per cent and Al Riyadh 49 per cent, but the visitors used theirs more incisively. They created 13 shots from inside the box compared to Al-Ettifaq's nine, a sign of higher-quality openings. The home side completed 380 passes with an 82 per cent accuracy, marginally ahead of Riyadh's 349 passes at 83 per cent, but the statistical picture otherwise points to Al Riyadh deserving the victory. Both goalkeepers recorded three saves, with goals prevented values equal at 0.79, suggesting the shot-stoppers had comparable influence.
The match featured three yellow cards. Radhi Al-Oteibi of Al-Ettifaq was booked in the 27th minute, while Al Riyadh's Yoann Barbet and Mohammed Alkhaibari received cautions in the 85th and 89th minutes respectively. The home side made one substitution, the visitors four. Antunes, with two goals, was the clear individual difference-maker among the nameable players, while Wijnaldum contributed a goal and an assist in a losing effort.
The result is significant in the Pro League Regular Season context. For Al Riyadh, recovering from two goals down away from home adds a valuable three points to their campaign, demonstrating resilience against a side favoured by the model. Al-Ettifaq, despite leading and generating a higher expected goals total, will regret a defensive collapse that cost them a commanding position. The standings reflect a tight league, and dropping points in this manner could prove costly in the race for higher finishes.
