Công An Nhân Dân won the Super Cup final 3-2 against Nam Dinh in a match decided by a frantic sequence of three goals in the final minute of normal time. The Lemeister model had given the home side a 45 per cent chance of victory, projecting a 2-1 win, and the eventual scoreline of 3-2 was one goal higher than expected. The data shows the result hinged on a dramatic swing in added time, with two goals in the 90th minute from Léo Artur and Nguyễn Đình Bắc flipping a 1-1 deadlock into a winning lead before a late penalty reduced the margin.
The opening goal came in the 38th minute when Alan Grafite scored for Công An Nhân Dân. It was a normal goal, unassisted, and gave the home side a 1-0 lead at the break. Nam Dindh equalised in the 54th minute through K. Hudlin, also an unassisted normal goal, bringing the scores level at 1-1. The match then settled into a period of stalemate that appeared destined for extra time until the extraordinary final minute.
In the 90th minute, the match exploded. Léo Artur scored for the home side to make it 2-1, and within the same minute Nguyễn Đình Bắc added a third to extend the lead to 3-1. The rapid double struck in the 90th minute effectively ended the contest as a contest, though Nam Dinh were awarded a penalty in the same minute. K. Hudlin converted from the spot to complete his brace and set the final score at 3-2. The three-minute sequence of four goals was the defining statistical pattern of the game.
Without the full match statistics or player ratings available, the analysis rests on the goal narrative and the model's probabilities. The expected goals projection of 2-1 suggests that the total of five goals exceeded what the underlying chances would normally produce, with the late flurry of three goals in the 90th minute being the principal outlier. The lack of any cards or substitutions may indicate a match that was close but not fractious, though that is a statistical absence rather than a confirmed observation.
Nguyễn Đình Bắc's goal in the 90th minute, coming as it did in such a crucial moment in a final, will stand as the decisive contribution. Léo Artur's equalising strike in the same minute was equally vital, as it broke the deadlock and forced Nam Dinh into a chasing position that they could not fully recover from. K. Hudlin's brace, including the penalty, was the standout individual performance for the losing side, but his efforts were undone by the inability to prevent the two-goal salvo in the final minute.
The result gives Công An Nhân Dân the Super Cup title, a trophy that carries significant weight as the first silverware of the season. For Nam Dinh, the defeat is a painful one given the manner of the late collapse, but the model's pre-match read had always favoured the home side narrowly. The final scoreline of 3-2, while a goal higher than the projection, confirms that Công An Nhân Dân were the Lemeister model's pick and justified that favouritism with the victory. The match will be remembered for its extraordinary 90th-minute drama rather than any sustained dominance from either side.
