Caldas v CF Os Belenenses: the model read
Caldas meet CF Os Belenenses in the Liga 3 regular season - 16 at Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha. The model makes CF Os Belenenses the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 26% CAL, 31% draw, 42% CF .
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1516, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans CF Os Belenenses, 53% against 33%. Attacking output favors CF Os Belenenses on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 40%. Draw no bet leans CF Os Belenenses at 62%; double chance reads Caldas or draw 58%, CF Os Belenenses or draw 74%.
Caldas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ 1º Dezembro, D 1-1 v SC Covilha, L 0-2 @ Atlético CP, W 2-1 @ Amora.
CF Os Belenenses are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Benfica, L 1-2 @ Alverca, D 0-0 v Farense, L 0-1 @ Farense.
CF Os Belenenses hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Caldas 1-2 CF Os Belenenses.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
