A 1-0 victory for Spain over Germany after 113 minutes was decided by a combination of sustained territorial control and the single moment of quality that statistics had long suggested was coming. The Lemeister model had given Spain a 43 per cent chance of winning, the highest single probability in a finely balanced semi-final, and the outcome confirmed that forecast. Spain’s 67 per cent possession and 720 completed passes to Germany’s 351 were the clearest indicators of a match played almost entirely on their terms, yet it required a goal in extra time to separate the sides.
The only goal arrived in the 113th minute, scored by Aitana Bonmatí and assisted by Athenea del Castillo. It was a normal goal, not a penalty or an own goal, and it came after Spain had accumulated 22 total shots, nine of which were on target, across the 120 minutes. That Spain needed until the second period of extra time to score says more about Germany’s resistance than about any failure in Spain’s approach play. The German goalkeeper made eight saves, the highest individual total on the pitch, and her performance earned a match rating of 8.5, joint-top alongside Patricia Guijarro.
The underlying numbers tell a story of Spanish dominance that stopped short of the finishing line for long spells. Spain attempted 18 shots from inside the box, more than double Germany’s nine, and their expected goals total, while not provided in the data, would logically have been substantially higher than the Germans’ given the volume and location of those attempts. Germany’s 15 total shots, with only four on target, reflected a side that could create openings on the counter but lacked the precision to trouble Catalina Coll, who made four saves and was rated 7.9.
Possession was the foundation of Spain’s control. Their 87 per cent passing accuracy, compared to Germany’s 72 per cent, allowed them to dictate rhythm and force Germany into sustained defensive work. The result was a lopsided foul count of 20 for Spain to 14 for Germany, with three Spanish yellow cards to Germany’s one. Esther González was booked in the 20th minute, Patricia Guijarro in the 107th, and Salma Paralluelo in the 111th, while Sara Däbritz received Germany’s only yellow in the 17th minute. The timing of Spain’s late cards suggests a side that was prepared to disrupt German momentum as the match entered its decisive phase.
Players with standout ratings included Guijarro and Berger on 8.5, Bonmatí on 8.3, and Irene Paredes on 8.0. Guijarro’s influence in central midfield, Paredes’s defensive composure, and Bonmatí’s ability to produce the winner in the 113th minute were all reflected in their numbers. Ona Batlle, rated 7.9, contributed to the wide play that kept Germany’s defence stretched. For Germany, Berger’s 8.5 was the only rating above 7, underlining how much the result depended on her shot-stopping.
The victory sends Spain into the final of the UEFA Women’s Championship, having outclassed Germany in almost every statistical category except the one that mattered most until the very end. For Germany, the defeat ends a semi-final run in which they showed resilience but lacked the ball retention and creative edge to match Spain’s sustained pressure. The Lemeister model’s projection of Spain as slight favourites proved accurate, and the result leaves Spain as the team to beat in the competition’s concluding match.
