Arouca v Estoril: the model read
Arouca meet Estoril in the Primeira Liga regular season - 28 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca. The model makes Arouca the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% ARO, 29% draw, 33% EST.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 40%. Attacking output favors Estoril on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 62%. Draw no bet leans Arouca at 54%; double chance reads Arouca or draw 67%, Estoril or draw 62%.
Arouca arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Santa Clara, D 0-0 @ Famalicao, D 0-0 @ Feirense, L 1-2 @ Rio Ave.
Estoril are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Alverca, W 3-0 v Atlético CP, L 1-3 v Benfica, D 1-1 @ Alverca.
Arouca hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Arouca 3-2 Estoril.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
