Casa Pia v Arouca: the model read
Casa Pia meet Arouca in the Primeira Liga regular season - 22 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior. The model makes Arouca the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 28% CAS, 31% draw, 41% ARO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 53%. Attacking output favors Arouca on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans Arouca at 59%; double chance reads Casa Pia or draw 59%, Arouca or draw 72%.
Casa Pia arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Estrela, W 2-0 v Torreense, D 0-0 @ Torreense, D 1-1 v Rio Ave.
Arouca are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Famalicao, D 0-0 @ Feirense, L 1-2 @ Rio Ave, W 3-1 v Tondela.
Casa Pia hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Casa Pia 3-2 Arouca.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
