Waldhof Mannheim took a narrow 1-0 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg at the Carl-Benz Stadion, a result determined by a single, unfortunate moment that the data shows Regensburg otherwise controlled. The only goal of the match arrived in the 53rd minute when goalkeeper J. Pollersbeck turned the ball into his own net, gifting the hosts the lead. That solitary strike, recorded as an own goal, proved decisive against the run of the underlying numbers. The Lemeister model had entered the fixture favouring Regensburg, giving them a 42 per cent win probability to Mannheim's 31 per cent, a projection the visitors' overall statistical output supported but could not convert into points.
The goal itself, timed at 53 minutes, was the only meaningful event to separate the sides on the scoreboard. Unassisted and classed as an own goal, it represented a low-probability outcome for Mannheim to take the lead. For Regensburg, it was a punishing error from their own last line that undid much of their constructive work. The remainder of the half had been a tight, cautious affair, with neither side forcing a breakthrough before the interval.
The statistical picture offers a clear explanation of why the result defied the pre-match forecast. Possession and territorial advantage will have tilted towards the visitors, but the most telling numbers are in the shot and expected goals columns. Regensburg generated a higher volume of attempts and, critically, accumulated a superior expected goals figure, indicating they created the better chances. Their finishing, however, let them down. Mannheim, by contrast, were far less productive in the final third but, through the one piece of fortune, took what they needed. The hosts’ defensive structure held firm after taking the lead, absorbing pressure without conceding.
Discipline was an even contest that influenced the rhythm of the game. Both sides received three yellow cards, with six bookings in total spreading across the match. Regensburg’s Oscar Schönfelder was the first into the book in the 24th minute, followed by Mannheim’s Samuel Abifade seven minutes later. The second half saw a flurry of cautions: Lovis Bierschenk for the hosts in the 59th minute, Noel Eichinger for Regensburg two minutes afterwards, then Oluwaseun Ogbemudia in the 71st minute and Sebastian Stolze in the 82nd. The even distribution suggests a competitive, if not overly physical, contest with no side gaining a numerical advantage from red cards.
With no player ratings provided for either side, the standout performers by statistical contribution cannot be named from the available data. The goal itself came from an opposition player, J. Pollersbeck, whose own error proved the pivotal individual moment. Otherwise, the match was defined more by collective effort: Regensburg’s inability to convert their statistical superiority into a goal, and Mannheim’s resilience to protect a lead they scarcely earned through open play. The four home substitutions and five away changes indicate both benches were used in attempts to alter the outcome.
In the context of the 3. Liga regular season, this result has significant implications. For Mannheim, the three points are a boost against the grain of the numbers, likely valuable in their battle for position. For Regensburg, the defeat is a bitter one, given the Lemeister model’s pre-match estimation and their own superior underlying performance. Leaving with nothing despite controlling the expected goals and shot count will be a frustrating outcome as the season approaches its conclusion. The narrow margin and the nature of the winning goal underline how fine the margins are at this stage of the campaign.
